EU-Ukraine: what Russia does next

Last Wednesday Ukraine reached a major political milestone in its relations with the EU when the Ukrainian government gave the green light to the signing of an Association Agreement between the two in Vilnius in November this year. After ten years of hesitation, Ukraine is choosing between two distinct and probably incompatible economic and geo- political alignments. Moreover, by rejecting Vladimir Putin’s Eurasian Economic Union in favour of closer economic integration with the EU, Kiev is making a choice that is likely to provoke Russian resentment and retaliation. This is far from a definitive statement of Ukraine’s European orientation: public attitudes are still ambivalent and Moscow remains a constant source of pressure. But it is a significant geopolitical setback for Vladimir Putin’s regional agenda. What he does next will matter for business.