Spanish politics in 2015: uncharted waters

Three years ago, the Spanish two-party political system looked comparatively stable. Now, and with three major electoral contests scheduled in the Spanish calendar for 2015, everything looks very different. At the heart of this is a dramatic collapse in the Spanish political mainstream, fuelling separatist campaigning in Catalonia and creating a gap filled by the Podemos party. This political fragmentation makes the prospect of a weak minority government in 2015 look like a very real possibility. Given that Spain has traded heavily with the EU, the Troika and the markets on the stability promised by the PP’s sweeping electoral wins in 2011 and Spain’s consequent ability to deliver structural and fiscal reform, 2015 now looks like a key year for Spanish sentiment.