Insights

Global Counsel’s recovery dashboard takes the pulse of the global economy. It shows how hot or cold the current recovery is in historical perspective with regards to industrial production, trade, confidence and growth. The dashboard also draws on high frequency data to show the current state of disruption and rebound in G20 economies. In addition, it relies on latest…

Global Counsel has supported the European Roundtable of Industrialists in producing a flagship report on the EU’s trade policy and the challenges faced in more complex geopolitical environment. The report argues that being open to trade is a source of strength for supply chains, rather than weakness, and suggests how the EU might best put into practice its new policy of…

In late December, the EU concluded a comprehensive agreement on investment (CAI) with China. The deal is controversial, not so much because of its economic content, but because of what it says about the EU’s priorities and because of its potential geopolitical implications. Are these concerns valid?

Gregor Irwin, Chief Economist, examines the prospects for the UK recovery from covid-19 in the wake of the rollout of vaccines, looking at the immediate prospects for recovery, longer term issues, and implications for asset prices and financial markets.

Many businesses are feeling their way towards a new balance between remote and office-based working. That partly involves responding to the preferences of customers and staff. It also involves responding to what competitors are doing. The forces of innovation and competition will likely mean the perimeter of the virtual office expands outwards over time. This will have…

Recent years have seen important global shifts in both the policy frameworks for screening inward foreign investment and the ways in which they are applied. These shifts come against a backdrop of protectionist political rhetoric and anxieties about the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) in traditionally open economies.

The covid-19 pandemic has created the perfect conditions for a sovereign debt crisis. The economic impact has already been unprecedented, according to the World Bank – in its suddenness, its severity and its synchronicity. But just as governments the world over are rapidly increasing their borrowing to cover the costs, many developing countries are finding that capital is…

Along with many of our clients, family and friends, GC staff have found themselves under varying levels of quarantine this week, in some cases far from home. Here some of the team consider the covid-19 politics and policies playing out around them.

There are three main channels through which coronavirus will impact on economies: disruption, threats to resilience and confidence. Disruption may mean that some markets do not function normally and require quantity rationing, creating unfamiliar dilemmas for businesses and governments. Threats to resilience may be compounded as businesses seek to protect themselves from…

Britain’s new chancellor of the exchequer, Rishi Sunak, will give his first budget on March 11th, less than four weeks after he was appointed, following the unexpected resignation of Sajid Javid. All budgets are important, but this one more than most, as Sunak must demonstrate that he is delivering on the commitment made by the Conservatives in the 2019 election to “level…

Bill Gates says climate activists are wasting their time trying to encourage divestment from companies involved with fossil fuels. The impact on emissions to date, according to Gates, is probably zero. Instead, activists should focus their efforts on backing new technologies that will either slow carbon emissions or reduce their impact on the climate. In short, more…

The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Fed are both worried about stubbornly low inflation and a weakening outlook. They are both signalling that they will turn the policy dial back towards a looser monetary stance. But the differences in the political circumstances and the institutional constraints facing each are stark. They suggest the Fed is much better positioned to…

The consensus underpinning monetary policy in advanced economies over the past 30 years is weakening, with challenges from both the left and the right, and from within the central banking community. The implications are potentially far-reaching, including for institutional arrangements and the independence of central banks. Some central banks are more vulnerable to…

Global Counsel Chief Economist, Gregor Irwin, and Head of Europe, Tom White, discuss Gregor's recent blog on why policymakers are coming under increasing pressure to reform competition regimes.

There is a growing body of evidence that suggests corporate market power may be increasing and that this is damaging macroeconomic performance. Moreover, the effects may be strengthening as the market power of some firms becomes more entrenched and capable of exploitation. This, combined with growing political attention in some major economies, means policymakers may come…

China’s “two sessions” were revealing about the tensions between the leadership’s internal and external policy objectives. The authorities are attempting to strike a balance between controlling slower growth and increasing urban employment, while reducing rural poverty, combatting pollution and reducing financial risk. The most important development was the passing of a…

UK: Global Counsel Senior Director Stephen Adams and Chief Economist Gregor Irwin discuss US investors' attitudes to Brexit, looking at challenges and opportunities for US investors in a post-Brexit UK, following Gregor's recent trip to North America.

We’ve now seen several votes in the House of Commons which are revealing about the appetite for rebellion on Brexit. Three stand out: the “meaningful vote” on January 15th; and the votes on the Brady and Cooper amendments two weeks later. The meaningful vote saw a record defeat for the government by a margin of 230, with 118 Conservatives rebelling against the party whip…