Insights

The Russia-Ukraine war was the elephant in the room at the inaugural Tashkent International Investment Forum in late March. While not mentioned directly by the speakers, it was clear to anyone that the conflict will impact Uzbekistan as it tries to position itself as a gateway for foreign corporates and investors to the rest of Central Asia.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has entered its second month, and Global Counsel continues to go beyond the headlines to cover the crisis through interactive events, in-depth analysis, and daily briefings.

On Wednesday morning, Russian troops entered Ukraine. As stressed by policymakers in London, Washington, and Brussels, everything is now on the table in terms of further sanctions against Russia. Whatever new measures might ensue-and depending on Russia’s counter-response-the immediate costs and possible risks for investors and corporates in the region have never been…

In a bonus episode, as the standoff at the Russian-Ukraine border continues, Alexander Smotrov and Rebecca Park discuss the economic and geographic implications of the crisis with CFC Big Ideas Partner Vasyl Myroshnychenko and CEC Group Chairman Marek Matraszek.

This is the second part in Global Counsel’s series on the Russian parliamentary elections this September. Each part discusses how government policy and decision-making is being impacted by the election build-up and what this means for businesses and companies whose operations are linked to Russia. Sign up here to hear more about our future events, podcasts and blogs on…

The covid-19 vaccine rollout in Central and Eastern Europe, including the Western Balkans, has not been immune to politicisation. Vaccination is seen as a powerful tool to accelerate post-covid economic recovery alongside stimulus packages, but with Russia and China getting involved, some compare it to the debate on national security concerns about critical infrastructure…

The nationwide protests and industrial strikes that followed the controversial presidential elections in Belarus continue. The outcome of this unprecedented expression of public dissatisfaction with President Alexander Lukashenko and his grip on the country is, however, not yet clear. Lukashenko may still cling on to power – at least for the time-being - relying on his…

The new Commission faces a complex European political landscape. Eurosceptic parties from many member states will put pressure on their governments after performing strongly in May’s European Parliament election, even if they are struggling to translate this into power in the parliament itself. Tensions have increased between eastern and western member states on migration…

The political guidelines for the 2019-2024 European Commission, and its priorities for the first 100 days, are wide-ranging and open to different interpretations. This is in contrast with its predecessor which (at the outset) could set as its over-riding priority the restoration of economic growth in Europe.

RUSSIA & CIS: Following a lunch event, Practice Lead for Russia, CIS and CEE, Alexander Smotrov and Nicu Popescu, Director of the Wider Europe Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, discuss recent elections in Europe and Ukraine, and their potential impacts on EU-Russia relations.

Five years after the annexation of Crimea, GC Senior Director Stephen Adams and Practice Lead Alexander Smotrov look at how this event has impacted President Putin’s approval ratings, Russian economy, Crimean population and Ukrainian politics.

Last week marked the fifth anniversary of the Russian annexation of Crimea from Ukraine (referred to as “accession” in Russia itself). President Putin descended on to Crimean soil to mark the date by opening new power stations while Moscow staged a three-day street festival to remember the Crimean “homecoming”. However, the public mood both in Crimea and in Moscow is…

Romania’s presidency of the EU Council - formally launching this week - has already received a dose of high-profile scepticism both in Brussels and Bucharest. Politicians ranging from president Juncker to president Iohannis expressed doubts about Romania’s preparedness for its first ever stint at the helm of the EU, 12 years after its accession. In fairness, it will not…

The long-anticipated constitutional referendum in Macedonia on Sunday has been watched carefully both in Brussels and in Moscow. The seemingly convoluted question in ballot papers – "Do you support EU and NATO membership by accepting the agreement between Macedonia and Greece?" – in fact provided an unequivocal direction for 1.8 million voters in the Balkan nation. The…

This is an excerpt from Global Counsel's latest publication Europe in the Global Economy, which can be downloaded in full here. 

A distinctive feature of President Juncker’s “political” European Commission was a single set of collective top-down priorities, rather than a stitching together of the agendas of individual commissioners. In 2014, this meant a focus on economic reforms to restore growth lost during the 2008 financial crisis: a digital single market, a…

Just under a month following his first attendance before the European Council, Poland’s new Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, has piqued Brussels’ interest in his young premiership with a major cabinet reshuffle. The move targets the most hard-line, nationalist ministers with portfolios core to the EU’s agenda: defence, foreign affairs, digital and the environment. The…

Vladimir Putin’s announcement to run for his fourth, and probably final, presidential term is no surprise. Thus far, all the polls indicate he will romp home on 18 March next year. Indeed, polling day has been moved to mark the anniversary of the Russian annexation of Crimea to reinforce the significance of Putin’s proudest achievement in his third term in office.