When the U.K. voted to leave the European Union in 2016, the British government had no chief trade negotiator and only a handful of people engaged in trade policy. As part of the EU, Britain hadn’t been able to forge its own trade deals since the 1970s.Stephen Adams, Senior Director at Global Counsel, said: "Until countries know whether the U.K. is remaining in the EU’s customs union or not after the transition, they probably won’t want to strike trade deals".
While India is often referred to as world's fastest-growing large economy, its currency has fallen by more than 12 percent this year against the US dollar. Gregor Irwin, chief economist at Global Counsel, says there are a number of factors contributing to it.
Some advice for business Global Counsel, an advisory firm, passed on a report published in Singapore by Peter Mandelson, former EU trade commissioner, and Carlos Gutierrez, former US Commerce secretary. In the face of so much uncertainty on trade, they flagged up a few tips for businesses trying to navigate the new environment.
President Donald Trump signed legislation on Thursday that would reduce tariffs on nearly 1,700 imported products used by U.S. manufacturers — an uncharacteristic move for the leader who has shown an affinity for imposing tariffs on foreign goods. (...) Trump’s trade actions will likely divert certain trade and investment opportunities away from the U.S. and to other countries, leaving American companies at a disadvantage, according to a new report by former Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez and former EU trade chief Peter Mandelson. Gutierrez is chairman of Albright Stonebridge Group and Mandelson is chairman of Global Counsel.
On Wednesday, Gutierrez and Peter Mandelson, former European Union Commissioner for Trade between 2004 and 2008, published a paper titled "Navigating the global trading system crisis: What businesses need to know."
Peter Mandelson said that he does not believe China is going to reinvent its whole economic and industrial model. In addition, he thinks there will be more international capital flowing into the Chinese economy, and that there will be a greater role for the private sector alongside China's state-owned enterprises in the coming years.
Liam Fox’s plan to take Britain into a trans-Pacific trade bloc after Brexit is not compatible with the strategy laid out by Theresa May at Chequers last month, trade experts said.
Stephen Adams, a trade expert at Global Counsel, a consultancy, said: “The UK and all these countries will need to be confident that they don’t lose by trading bilateral arrangements for the CPTPP framework and can preserve important features of these agreements inside CPTPP.”
Commenting on British white paper, Gregor Irwin, Global Counsel Chief Economist said:
"There's certainly a softer Brexit for goods. It's a harder Brexit for services because the government has said it can tolerate a much looser arrangement with the EU. And services is a bigger part of the British economy than manufacturing."
A move by President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on cars assembled in Europe would dramatically escalate trade tensions and produce a quick response from the European Union.
The European Union will chose its targets from US imports worth about €256 billion ($299 billion) each year.
"The targets will be a combination of iconic US brands and politically sensitive agricultural products," said Gregor Irwin, chief economist at Global Counsel.
It doesn't look like we're any closer at this point to knowing what Brexit is going to look like. The longer that goes on, what sort of damage is it doing to the UK economy? Gregor Irwin, Chief Economist, Global Counsel, said: The longer that that goes on, the more likely we are to see firms, investors beginning to implement their contingency plans. There will be planning on the worst case scenario which might even be that there's no deal at all by the time UK leaves the EU, and certainly there'll be planning on the basis that there will be some disruption at the end of transition periods.
The leaders of the world's largest economies are at each others' throats over tariffs. Should they be?
"It's just entirely wrong to focus on one sector," said Gregor Irwin, chief economist at Global Counsel. "There is room for improvement in the EU-US relationship, but it certainly requires concessions on both sides."